With the Iranian revolution as her focal point, Seliktar offers a systematic analysis of predictive failure in foreign policy at the paradigmatic, policy, and intelligence levels. Seliktar first examines how social science paradigms determine conceptualizations of political change, and then applies that analysis to understanding New Internationalism, the Carter administration's foreign policy philosophy at the time of the Shah's fall from power. Based in part on classified documents seized during the takeover of the American embassy, Failing the Crystal Ball Test is a valuable addition to Middle Eastern studies, international relations, and comparative politics collections.
Seliktar engages in a general discussion of the problems entailed in correctly assessing the political legitimacy of foreign regimes, and describes the origins of New Internationalism as influenced by the New Left dependency theories. Examining President Carter's application of New Internationalism to Iran, Seliktar presents an account first of political influences on the predictive process during the early stages of revolution, and then of the administration's misreading of the likelihood of a fundamentalist regime in Teheran.
Preface
Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change
Theories of Political Change and Predictions of Change
Paradigmatic Views of Political Change: Developmentalism vs. Dependency
Road Testing New Internationalism: The Iran Policy of the Carter Administration
In the Eye of the Storm: The Carter Administration and the Iranian Revolution
Dealing with Chaos: The Carter Administration and the Successor Regime in Iran
Conclusion: Reflections on Predictive Failures
Reviews
[p]rovides a competent summary and synthesis of the literature on regime change and the predictive process....[m]akes a persuasive case that, while there can be no guarantee in any prediction of political change, assessments could be more self-conscious about the ontological and epistemological assumptions that influence them.—The International History Review
...the author provides a sound theoretical base for understanding Carter's dilemmas toward Iran. Recommended for students and specialists alike. Upper-division undergraduates and above.—Choice
Endorsements
A rare and valuable case study of foreign policy-making in the eye of a political hurricane. It is also a trenchant critique of the two-dimensional tradition of academic and professional political analysis that could not cope intellectually with the `non-rational' factors of religion, culture and national psychology that dominated the Khomeini upheaval.—Joseph V. Montville^LDirector^LPreventive Diplomacy Program
[A]n excellent and in-depth study of how policy-maker's views can blind them to what is happening. A must read for both academics and policy officers who seek greater understanding of cross-cultural clashes.—John D. Stempel^LDirector and Professor of International Studies^LUniversity of Kentucky
